CAMDEN, N.J. — In a different era, Bryce Hillman would be a sure fire NCAA Division 1 recruit. The Camden Eastside senior guard is everything low to mid-major college basketball programs traditionally sought: a 6-foot-2, 185-pound leader with deep shooting range, a powerful build, and a floor-general mentality that keeps his team in the game until the final buzzer. Yesterday, at Camden Catholic and Down 7, he hit 2 deep 3-pointers with less than 22 seconds left in the game. Off the court, his profile is equally impressive—a straight-A student, a member of the National Honor Society, and academically eligible for the Ivy and Patriot League programs.

Yet, as the 2026 recruiting cycle inches forward, Hillman’s phone isn’t ringing with Division I offers. Instead, he represents a growing, silent casualty of a revolution in college sports. His stalled recruitment is not a reflection of his talent but a direct consequence of the seismic paradigm shift driven by the transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) compensation. These changes have professionalized college athletics at a breathtaking pace, creating a system where proven commodities are valued over potential, and where high school prospects like Hillman are increasingly an afterthought.
The New Calculus of Roster Building
College basketball has entered its “Wild West” era, characterized by unprecedented roster turnover and a relentless focus on immediate results. The transfer portal, which saw Division I entries nearly double from 2019 to 2024, has become the primary talent marketplace. For coaches under pressure to win now, the calculus is simple: Why invest a precious scholarship and years of development in an 18-year-old when you can recruit a 22-year-old from the portal who has already proven he can score against college competition?
The data supports this cold logic. A 2024 study found that 65% of Division I men’s basketball players who enter the transfer portal move down a competitive level or out of the sport entirely, suggesting it is often a tool for finding playing time at a lower level rather than a guaranteed path up. Yet, for coaches, the portal offers a known quantity. As one high-major coach bluntly stated about the new financial reality, “No one’s going to pay a freshman $1.5 million anymore. You can’t have a third of your [revenue-share] cap going to a guy who’s never played in college”.
This professionalized approach has led to what one analyst calls “one-year partnerships”. Programs provide NIL money and a platform; in return, players must fill a specific, immediate role. Long-term development plans, once the bedrock of college coaching, are becoming “a thing of the past”. This environment inherently disadvantages high school seniors, like Bryce Hillman, no matter how gifted.

The Squeeze on the 2026 Class
Hillman’s class is caught in a perfect storm. The convergence of the transfer portal’s dominance and the new financial uncertainties of the “rev-share era” has brought high-major recruiting for 2026 prospects to a near standstill. Following the landmark House v. NCAA settlement, schools are navigating how to directly share revenue with athletes while also regulating booster-backed NIL collectives. This has created massive uncertainty about what financial packages can even be offered.
“Coaches are telling us, ‘We’re not going to the portal if you commit to us.’” — Deron Rippey Sr., father of a five-star 2026 recruit.
As a result, conversations between coaches and top 2026 recruits have barely addressed specific numbers. “Most coaches say the rules are changing in the next two weeks, the next month, we’re trying to figure out what we can do,” said the father of one elite prospect. Another recruit noted, “Some coaches have no clue, really. A lot of their answers… is, ‘I don’t know.’ It’s funny hearing that”.
This financial fog exacerbates the existing bias toward the portal. Coaches, unsure of their future budgets, are hesitant to commit resources to high school players. They know that next spring, they will need to save a significant portion of their funds to compete in the transfer market, where bidding for proven players has reached astonishing levels—with some individual transfers commanding multi-million dollar packages. For a player like Hillman, who isn’t a consensus five-star recruit, the path to a high-major or even a mid-major offer has become exceedingly narrow.

The Cascading Effect and the Lost Art of Development
The impact of this shift creates a cascading effect throughout the ecosystem:
- High-Major Programs seek players from other high-major programs or stars who have dominated at the mid-major level.
- Mid-Major Programs, in turn, chase former top-100 high school recruits who are seeking more playing time after sitting on a power-conference bench.
- Low-Major Programs target frustrated transfers from the higher levels.
This leaves talented, unproven high school prospects in a state of limbo. They are now frequently advised that their route to a Division I opportunity may require a detour—a post-graduate prep school year or proving themselves at the Division II or NAIA level first. This mirrors the transient “Migration Generation” of players who hopscotch between schools in high school and college, a trend that risks academic progress and stable development.
The professionalization of the sport is also changing how programs are run. Forward-thinking schools like the University of North Carolina are building mini-NBA front offices, hiring professionals to handle scouting, NIL negotiations, and roster management—tasks that were once the domain of coaches. In this new structure, the focus of coaching staffs can return to X’s and O’s and player development. The tragic irony is that in this more “professional” system, there are fewer and fewer raw, young players deemed worthy of that development investment.
A Path Forward in a Changed Game
So, what is a player like Bryce Hillman to do? The old blueprint is obsolete. Success now requires a new playbook that acknowledges the reality of the business:
- Embrace Alternative Pathways: A post-graduate year at a national prep school or a starring role at a top Division II program can provide the tape and proof of concept that the portal-driven market demands.
- Seek Programs Committed to Development: Some coaches, particularly at mid-majors with less portal buying power, still prioritize building through high school recruits. Identifying these programs is crucial.
- Leverage Academic Excellence: For a student like Hillman, targeting high-academic schools in the Ivy, Patriot, or similar leagues can be a strategic advantage, as these programs often have different roster-building philosophies and cannot use large NIL offers as their primary tool.
- Exercise Patience: The portal creates late-summer roster chaos. Scholarships can materialize in August as teams finalize their rosters, rewarding those who remain ready and visible.
Bryce Hillman’s story is not unique. It is the new normal for thousands of talented high school basketball players. The NCAA’s transformation, born from a long-overdue move toward athlete compensation and freedom, has had profound unintended consequences. It has created a quasi-professional free agency that values immediate production over nurtured potential. In the rush to embrace this new era, we must not forget the Bryce Hillmans of the world—the talented, well-rounded students and athletes who just a few years ago would have been the foundation of a college program, but who now stand on the outside, waiting for a coach still willing to believe in, and invest in, the promise of an 18-year-old.
The system has gained financial freedom for players at the top, but it has quietly closed a door of NCAA Division 1 opportunity for many at the bottom. Whether that door can be nudged back open may define the soul of college basketball in the decades to come.
































